What is at stake in Serbia’s election? The key players, main issues and potential fallout

Serbia’s 6.5 million voters go to the polls on 25 October in a watershed parliamentary election characterised by civil unrest, a new political landscape, allegations of irregularities, an uncertain outcome and the potential of far-reaching consequences.

Here is a brief guide to the key issues.

What is the story and why does it matter?

Two events frame this election. The first was the collapse of the Novi Sad railway station canopy in November 2024, which killed 16 people and uncovered massive government and institutional corruption, setting off two years of anti-government protests.

The second was the hero’s funeral accorded to the Serbian general Ratko Mladić, the “Butcher of Bosnia”, who was convicted of orchestrating Europe’s worst massacre since the second world war but buried with military honours in Belgrade last month.

Amid international outrage but intense Serb nationalist pride, the increasingly authoritarian president, Aleksandar Vučić, who has dominated Serbia’s politics for 14 years, resigned to lead his ruling Serbian Progressive party (SNS) list in an attempt to become prime minister.

Against him is the Student List, a grassroots, decentralised, student-led coalition that has evolved from a spontaneous protest movement after the Novi Sad disaster into a serious parliamentary challenger offering a clear alternative to the traditional parties.

It matters because Serbia is an EU-candidate country that continues to balance ties with the west, Russia and China. Media bias, voter intimidation and electoral list irregularities mean any result could be contested, prompting mass protests and exacerbating regional instability.

Who are the key players and parties?

Vučić’s SNS anchors the “United Serbia” list. The party relies on control of the public purse, favourable media coverage and strong nationalist backing, but its campaign has been overshadowed by accusations of systemic voter manipulation.

The Student List eschews party hierarchies or a single figurehead, preferring locally respected academics and professionals, and operates through university networks. Its quickfire, humorous campaign has mobilised large numbers of disengaged voters.

That means Serbia’s traditional opposition parties have been largely marginalised, with their collective support falling from 30% to 10-15%. Some parties have switched allegiance to the Student List. Others, such as European Serbia, may not clear the 3% electoral threshold.

Meanwhile, Serbia’s rightwing, nationalist bloc is riven with disagreements and has been further weakened by the unexpected withdrawal of the We the Power of the People party over allegations of Russian influence. Some of the nationalist vote may switch to the SNS.

What is the likely outcome and when will we know it?

Opinion polls are conflicting and not especially reliable, and there are significant concerns about electoral integrity, with allegations of state violence against opposition activists and government manipulation of voter registration lists and overseas voting arrangements.

Over the past few months some polls have put SNS ahead, some the Student List, and others have forecast a neck-and-neck race. There is therefore a serious risk that whoever claims a 126-seat majority in the 250-strong parliament, the result will be contested.

Analysts at the European Council on Foreign Relations suggest five main possible scenarios. The SNS could score a convincing victory, with the Student List entering parliament as a strong opposition; or a narrower, contested win, leading to street protests and legal challenges.

The result could be inconclusive, with neither main coalition securing a majority. In that case, smaller traditional parties such as the Socialists could become kingmakers, or the election could be re-run.

The Student List could win a majority, but find the result contested by Vučić and the SNS, again leading to protests and possible violent repression; or it could secure a clear mandate allowing a peaceful transfer of power and setting Serbia on a very different course.

Polling stations open on Sunday at 7am local time and close 8pm, with early independent and unofficial projections expected from about 9pm and preliminary official results from the electoral commission in the early hours of the morning.

What might be the consequences?

Within Serbia, the immediate fallout will depend on whether voters accept the result as legitimate. A victory for either side marred by obvious irregularities, or a disputed transition, could lead to civil unrest, violent clashes and institutional paralysis.

Even if the Student List does win and manages a peaceful transfer of power, governing – as Péter Magyar is finding after defeating the illiberall Viktor Orbán in Hungary – will present major hurdles. Reforming 14 years of centralised SNS control will not be easy.

Internationally, the election will affect the EU: an irregular Vučić victory would force Brussels to decide whether to continue transactional diplomacy or freeze integration funds, while a Student win would require immediate financial aid and a clear path to accession.

The Trump administration in the US sees commercial gains in Serbia and launched a “strategic dialogue” with Belgrade in mid-2026 on energy and technology. An SNS-led government would probably maintain Serbia’s awkward geopolitical balancing act.

A Student-led administration, on the other hand, would offer a chance to shift the western Balkan country much more decisively into the European fold.